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Respublika FA vs Lochin — Pro League A 2026

Respublika FA
Respublika FA
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lochin
Lochin
5/5/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Respublika FA24%
×Draw29%
Lochin47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Respublika FA
0.82
Lochin
1.27

Lochin creates 55% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Respublika FA
1.25
Lochin
1.80

allows per match

Respublika FA
0.75
Lochin
0.40

finishing

Respublika FA+0.00on par
Lochin+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Respublika FA ↓

Lochin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Respublika FA or draw
53%
Respublika FA or Lochin
71%
Draw or Lochin
76%

Winning margin

Respublika FA wins by 2+
8%
Lochin wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Respublika FA 1+ goals
56%
Respublika FA 2+ goals
20%
Respublika FA 3+ goals
5%
Lochin 1+ goals
72%
Lochin 2+ goals
36%
Lochin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Respublika FA (draw refunded)
34%
Lochin (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Respublika FA at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Lochin away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Respublika FA attack 1.25 + Lochin defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.82

Lochin attack 1.80 + Respublika FA defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Respublika FA scores more
24%
level
29%
Lochin scores more
47%

Lochin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lochin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+1'
S. Rasulov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League A: Respublika FA 0–0 Lochin

Respublika FA and Lochin drew 0-0 in Pro League A on May 5, 2026.