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Respublika FA vs BuxDu — Pro League A 2026

Respublika FA
Respublika FA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
BuxDu
BuxDu
A. Aliev 62'
4/15/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Respublika FA73%
×Draw20%
BuxDu7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Respublika FA
1.82
BuxDu
0.38

Respublika FA creates 379% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Respublika FA
1.25
BuxDu
0.00

allows per match

Respublika FA
0.75
BuxDu
2.40

finishing

Respublika FA+0.00on par
BuxDu+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Respublika FA ↓

BuxDu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Respublika FA or draw
93%
Respublika FA or BuxDu
80%
Draw or BuxDu
27%

Winning margin

Respublika FA wins by 2+
45%
BuxDu wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Respublika FA 1+ goals
84%
Respublika FA 2+ goals
54%
Respublika FA 3+ goals
27%
BuxDu 1+ goals
32%
BuxDu 2+ goals
6%
BuxDu 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Respublika FA (draw refunded)
91%
BuxDu (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Respublika FA at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

BuxDu away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Respublika FA attack 1.25 + BuxDu defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

BuxDu attack 0.00 + Respublika FA defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Respublika FA scores more
73%
level
20%
BuxDu scores more
7%

Respublika FA at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Respublika FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
A. Aliev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League A: Respublika FA 1–0 BuxDu

Respublika FA beat BuxDu 1-0 in Pro League A on April 15, 2026.

Goals: A. Aliev (62').