Resovia Rzeszów 3–3 Zagłębie Lubin II

Resovia Rzeszów

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Zagłębie Lubin II

B. Eizenchart 49'

D. Pieniążek 37'

F. Mikrut 23'

P. Kruszelnicki 45' (pen), 25', 19'

8/30/2024

II Liga - East · Round 7Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów51%

×Draw23%

Zagłębie Lubin II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Resovia RzeszówExpected goals in this matchZagłębie Lubin II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.17

Resovia Rzeszów

1.77

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.17

Resovia Rzeszów creates 51% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

1.55

creates per match

1.21

1.12

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.55

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.21

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.12

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw

75%

Resovia Rzeszów or Zagłębie Lubin II

77%

Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II

49%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

28%

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

83%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

53%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

26%

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals

69%

Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals

33%

Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

67%

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.55 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.77

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.21 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

51%

level

23%

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more

25%

Resovia Rzeszów at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

19'

23'

25'

37'

45+1'

45'

P. KruszelnickiPenalty

46'

B. Eizenchart← D. Pieniążek

49'

53'

62'

64'

64'

D. Gregorski← B. Moczyński

72'

A. Kubacki← K. Kolanko

81'

O. Droździk← F. Antkiewicz

88'

Resovia

Zagłębie

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mikrut

⚽

▼

Pieniążek

Manager: R. Ulatowski

46'▲B. Eizenchart←▼D. Pieniążek

64'▲K. Mazek←▼F. Mikrut

Resovia Rzeszów substitutes

EizenchartMazek

Manager: P. Sochacki

64'▲D. Gregorski←▼B. Moczyński

72'▲A. Kubacki←▼K. Kolanko

81'▲O. Droździk←▼F. Antkiewicz

Zagłębie Lubin II substitutes

GregorskiKubackiDroździk

II Liga - East: Resovia Rzeszów 3–3 Zagłębie Lubin II

Resovia Rzeszów and Zagłębie Lubin II drew 3-3 in II Liga - East on August 30, 2024.

Goals: P. Kruszelnicki (19', 25', 45' pen), F. Mikrut (23'), D. Pieniążek (37'), B. Eizenchart (49').

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.

Resovia Rzeszów vs Zagłębie Lubin II — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Resovia Rzeszów 3–3 Zagłębie Lubin II