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Resovia Rzeszów vs Podbeskidzie — II Liga - East 2019

Resovia Rzeszów
Resovia Rzeszów
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
10/13/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 13Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów40%
×Draw25%
Podbeskidzie35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Resovia Rzeszów
1.45
Podbeskidzie
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.55
Podbeskidzie
1.53

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.12
Podbeskidzie
1.35

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par
Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Podbeskidzie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw
65%
Resovia Rzeszów or Podbeskidzie
75%
Draw or Podbeskidzie
60%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+
19%
Podbeskidzie wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals
77%
Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals
42%
Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals
18%
Podbeskidzie 1+ goals
74%
Podbeskidzie 2+ goals
38%
Podbeskidzie 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)
54%
Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.55 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Podbeskidzie attack 1.53 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more
40%
level
25%
Podbeskidzie scores more
35%

Resovia Rzeszów at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Resovia Rzeszów 2–3 Podbeskidzie

Podbeskidzie beat Resovia Rzeszów 3-2 in II Liga - East on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.