Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Resovia Rzeszów vs Odra Opole — I Liga 2018

Resovia Rzeszów
Resovia Rzeszów
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Odra Opole
Odra Opole
12/15/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 19Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów41%
×Draw27%
Odra Opole32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Resovia Rzeszów
1.31
Odra Opole
1.13

Resovia Rzeszów creates 16% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 138 away

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.03
Odra Opole
1.08

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.18
Odra Opole
1.60

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par
Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Odra Opole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw
68%
Resovia Rzeszów or Odra Opole
73%
Draw or Odra Opole
59%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+
18%
Odra Opole wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals
73%
Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals
38%
Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals
14%
Odra Opole 1+ goals
68%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
31%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)
56%
Odra Opole (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.03 + Odra Opole defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.31

Odra Opole attack 1.08 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more
41%
level
27%
Odra Opole scores more
32%

Resovia Rzeszów at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Resovia Rzeszów vs Odra Opole

Resovia Rzeszów beat Odra Opole 1-0 in I Liga on December 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.