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Resovia Rzeszów vs Motor Lublin — I Liga 2018

Resovia Rzeszów
Resovia Rzeszów
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
5/17/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 33Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów29%
×Draw29%
Motor Lublin42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Resovia Rzeszów
0.98
Motor Lublin
1.23

Motor Lublin creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 18 away

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.03
Motor Lublin
1.28

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.18
Motor Lublin
0.94

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par
Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Motor Lublin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw
58%
Resovia Rzeszów or Motor Lublin
71%
Draw or Motor Lublin
71%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+
11%
Motor Lublin wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals
62%
Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals
26%
Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals
8%
Motor Lublin 1+ goals
71%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
35%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)
41%
Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.03 + Motor Lublin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Motor Lublin attack 1.28 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more
29%
level
29%
Motor Lublin scores more
42%

Motor Lublin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Resovia Rzeszów 1–3 Motor Lublin

Motor Lublin beat Resovia Rzeszów 3-1 in I Liga on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.