Resovia Rzeszów 1–0 Jastrzębie: Result & Stats

Resovia Rzeszów

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jastrzębie

M. Mróz 51'

3/5/2022

I Liga · Round 22Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów39%

×Draw28%

Jastrzębie33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Resovia RzeszówExpected goals in this matchJastrzębie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.08

Resovia Rzeszów

1.21

Jastrzębie

1.08

Resovia Rzeszów creates 12% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 65 away

1.03

creates per match

0.98

1.18

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.03

Jastrzębie

0.98

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.18

Jastrzębie

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Jastrzębie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw

67%

Resovia Rzeszów or Jastrzębie

72%

Draw or Jastrzębie

61%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

17%

Jastrzębie wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

70%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

34%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

12%

Jastrzębie 1+ goals

66%

Jastrzębie 2+ goals

29%

Jastrzębie 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

54%

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.40 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.03 + Jastrzębie defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Jastrzębie attack 0.98 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

39%

level

28%

Jastrzębie scores more

33%

Resovia Rzeszów at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

D. Kaminski

38'

K. HandzlikGoal Disallowed

41'

M. Kuczalek

51'

M. Mróz

60'

G. Gulczyński← M. Kuczałek

60'

W. Łaski← K. Handzlik

73'

D. Kaminski

73'

D. Kaminski

74'

P. Wojciechowski← J. Wróbel

81'

M. Bondarenko

83'

D. Stanclik← Ł. Zejdler

83'

S. Zalewski← R. Borkała

86'

D. Hilbrycht← M. Mróz

86'

K. Krasa← B. Wasiluk

90+2'

R. Adamski

Resovia

Jastrzębie

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mróz

▼

Wróbel

Manager: D. Kroczek

74'▲P. Wojciechowski←▼J. Wróbel

86'▲D. Hilbrycht←▼M. Mróz

86'▲K. Krasa←▼B. Wasiluk

Resovia Rzeszów substitutes

WojciechowskiHilbrychtKrasaKwiecieńAntonikRebiszŁakota

Manager: G. Kurdziel

60'▲G. Gulczyński←▼M. Kuczałek

60'▲W. Łaski←▼K. Handzlik

83'▲D. Stanclik←▼Ł. Zejdler

83'▲S. Zalewski←▼R. Borkała

Jastrzębie substitutes

GulczyńskiŁaskiStanclikZalewskiJadachReclafRutkowskiWybraniecGajda