Resovia Rzeszów 6–0 Gryf Wejherowo: Result & Stats

Resovia Rzeszów

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Gryf Wejherowo

K. Twardowski 83'

S. Zalepa 62'

D. Swiderski 58', 20'

S. Kaliniec 45+1'

R. Mikulec 32'

2/29/2020

II Liga - East · Round 21Stadion Resovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów71%

×Draw17%

Gryf Wejherowo11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Resovia RzeszówExpected goals in this matchGryf Wejherowo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

0.83

Resovia Rzeszów

2.37

Gryf Wejherowo

0.83

Resovia Rzeszów creates 186% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.55

creates per match

0.53

1.12

allows per match

3.18

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.55

Gryf Wejherowo

0.53

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.12

Gryf Wejherowo

3.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Gryf Wejherowo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw

89%

Resovia Rzeszów or Gryf Wejherowo

83%

Draw or Gryf Wejherowo

29%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

48%

Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

91%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

68%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

42%

Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals

56%

Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals

20%

Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

86%

Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Gryf Wejherowo away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.55 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 3.18 → ÷2 → 2.37

Gryf Wejherowo attack 0.53 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

71%

level

17%

Gryf Wejherowo scores more

11%

Resovia Rzeszów at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

29'

32'

45+1'

57'

58'

A. Dziubiński← M. Hebel

58'

62'

63'

65'

65'

R. Adamski← S. Krykun

65'

K. Twardowski← D. Swiderski

75'

J. Pek← K. Baranowski

83'

K. Twardowski

85'

J. Godlewski← O. Sikorski

Resovia

Gryf

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Swiderski

Hajduk

Manager: S. Grabowski

58'▲A. Dziubiński←▼M. Hebel

65'▲G. Płatek←▼K. Radulj

65'▲R. Adamski←▼S. Krykun

65'▲K. Twardowski←▼D. Swiderski

Resovia Rzeszów substitutes

DziubińskiPłatekAdamskiTwardowski

Manager: L. Kowalski

57'▲N. Sroka←▼T. Kolus

63'▲B. Gesior←▼M. Goerke

75'▲J. Pek←▼K. Baranowski

85'▲J. Godlewski←▼O. Sikorski

Gryf Wejherowo substitutes

SrokaGesiorPekGodlewski