Resovia Rzeszów 0–0 Górnik Polkowice

Resovia Rzeszów

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Górnik Polkowice

11/7/2021

I Liga · Round 16Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów48%

×Draw25%

Górnik Polkowice27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Resovia RzeszówExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.09

Resovia Rzeszów

1.54

Górnik Polkowice

1.09

Resovia Rzeszów creates 41% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.03

creates per match

1.00

1.18

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.03

Górnik Polkowice

1.00

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.18

Górnik Polkowice

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw

73%

Resovia Rzeszów or Górnik Polkowice

75%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

52%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

24%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

79%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

45%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

20%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

66%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

30%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

64%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.03 + Górnik Polkowice defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.54

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.00 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

48%

level

25%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

27%

Resovia Rzeszów at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

28'

37'

55'

71'

K. Antonik← D. Pietraszkiewicz

71'

M. Hebel← S. Strózik

71'

D. Radziemski← M. Opałacz

71'

K. Wacławczyk← M. Bancewicz

76'

E. Sobkow

83'

B. Wasiluk← R. Mikulec

87'

F. Baranowski← E. Sobków

90+2'

B. Gvozdenovic

90+4'

M. Palaszewski

90+2'

O. Podhorín← M. Mróz

Resovia

Górnik

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Kroczek

71'▲K. Antonik←▼D. Pietraszkiewicz

71'▲M. Hebel←▼S. Strózik

83'▲B. Wasiluk←▼R. Mikulec

90+2'▲O. Podhorín←▼M. Mróz

Resovia Rzeszów substitutes

AntonikHebelWasilukPodhorínSzymkiewiczRostkowskiŁakota

Manager: P. Barylski

71'▲D. Radziemski←▼M. Opałacz

71'▲K. Wacławczyk←▼M. Bancewicz

87'▲F. Baranowski←▼E. Sobków

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

RadziemskiWacławczykBaranowskiMazurowskiKrakowskiBiernatFurtakKarmelita