Resovia Rzeszów 0–1 GKS Katowice: Result & Stats

Resovia Rzeszów

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

GKS Katowice

8/21/2022

I Liga · Round 7Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów34%

×Draw28%

GKS Katowice38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Resovia RzeszówExpected goals in this matchGKS Katowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.22

Resovia Rzeszów

1.13

GKS Katowice

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

1.03

creates per match

1.26

1.18

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.03

GKS Katowice

1.26

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.18

GKS Katowice

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

GKS Katowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw

62%

Resovia Rzeszów or GKS Katowice

72%

Draw or GKS Katowice

66%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

14%

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

68%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

31%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

11%

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

70%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

34%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

47%

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.03 + GKS Katowice defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

GKS Katowice attack 1.26 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

34%

level

28%

GKS Katowice scores more

38%

GKS Katowice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff