Resovia Rzeszów 1–2 Garbarnia Kraków

Resovia Rzeszów

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Garbarnia Kraków

7/1/2020

II Liga - East · Round 29Stadion Resovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów44%

×Draw25%

Garbarnia Kraków30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Resovia RzeszówExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.20

Resovia Rzeszów

1.51

Garbarnia Kraków

1.20

Resovia Rzeszów creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

1.55

creates per match

1.28

1.12

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.55

Garbarnia Kraków

1.28

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.12

Garbarnia Kraków

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw

70%

Resovia Rzeszów or Garbarnia Kraków

75%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

56%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

22%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

78%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

44%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

19%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

70%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

34%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

59%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.55 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.51

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

44%

level

25%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

30%

Resovia Rzeszów at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff