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Resovia Rzeszów vs Bytovia Bytów — II Liga - East 2019

Resovia Rzeszów
Resovia Rzeszów
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
8/21/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 5Stadion Resovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów50%
×Draw24%
Bytovia Bytów26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Resovia Rzeszów
1.71
Bytovia Bytów
1.15

Resovia Rzeszów creates 49% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 35 away

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.55
Bytovia Bytów
1.17

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.12
Bytovia Bytów
1.86

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw
74%
Resovia Rzeszów or Bytovia Bytów
76%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
50%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+
27%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals
82%
Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals
51%
Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals
24%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
68%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
32%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)
66%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.55 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more
50%
level
24%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
26%

Resovia Rzeszów at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Resovia Rzeszów 1–1 Bytovia Bytów

Resovia Rzeszów and Bytovia Bytów drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on August 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Resovia in Rzeszów.