Resistencia 3–4 Rubio NU: Result & Stats

Resistencia

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Rubio NU

R. F. Vera Encina 52', 45+1'

N. Baez 28'

J. Gimenez 83'

C. Villagra 73', 19'

D. Mereles 15'

6/20/2025

Division Intermedia · Round 14Estadio Tomás Beggan Correa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Resistencia42%

×Draw27%

Rubio NU31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ResistenciaExpected goals in this matchRubio NU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.11

Resistencia

1.34

Rubio NU

1.11

Resistencia creates 21% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 105 away

1.49

creates per match

1.10

1.13

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Resistencia

1.49

Rubio NU

1.10

allows per match

Resistencia

1.13

Rubio NU

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Resistencia+0.00on par

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resistencia ↓

Rubio NU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Resistencia or draw

69%

Resistencia or Rubio NU

73%

Draw or Rubio NU

58%

Winning margin

Resistencia wins by 2+

19%

Rubio NU wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Resistencia 1+ goals

74%

Resistencia 2+ goals

39%

Resistencia 3+ goals

15%

Rubio NU 1+ goals

67%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

30%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Resistencia (draw refunded)

58%

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resistencia at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.13 · 84 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resistencia attack 1.49 + Rubio NU defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rubio NU attack 1.10 + Resistencia defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Resistencia scores more

42%

level

27%

Rubio NU scores more

31%

Resistencia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Resistencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

D. Mereles

19'

C. Villagra

28'

N. Baez

45+1'

R. F. Vera Encina

52'

R. F. Vera Encina

73'

C. Villagra

83'

J. Gimenez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff