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Resistencia vs Martin Ledesma — Division Intermedia 2018

Resistencia
Resistencia
FT
3 – 0
Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
7/1/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 17Estadio Tomás Beygon Gorea (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Resistencia46%
×Draw27%
Martin Ledesma27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Resistencia
1.41
Martin Ledesma
1.00

Resistencia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 61 away

creates per match

Resistencia
1.47
Martin Ledesma
0.87

allows per match

Resistencia
1.13
Martin Ledesma
1.34

finishing

Resistencia+0.00on par
Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resistencia ↓

Martin Ledesma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Resistencia or draw
73%
Resistencia or Martin Ledesma
73%
Draw or Martin Ledesma
54%

Winning margin

Resistencia wins by 2+
22%
Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Resistencia 1+ goals
76%
Resistencia 2+ goals
41%
Resistencia 3+ goals
17%
Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
63%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
26%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Resistencia (draw refunded)
63%
Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resistencia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.13 · 85 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resistencia attack 1.47 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Resistencia defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Resistencia scores more
46%
level
27%
Martin Ledesma scores more
27%

Resistencia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Resistencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Resistencia 3–0 Martin Ledesma

Resistencia beat Martin Ledesma 3-0 in Division Intermedia on July 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Tomás Beygon Gorea (Asunción).