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Requins vs Etoile Filante — Championnat National 2019

Requins
Requins
FT
2 – 1
Etoile Filante
Etoile Filante
10/28/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 2Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Requins50%
×Draw29%
Etoile Filante21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Requins
1.30
Etoile Filante
0.73

Requins creates 78% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 29 away

creates per match

Requins
1.29
Etoile Filante
0.52

allows per match

Requins
0.93
Etoile Filante
1.31

finishing

Requins+0.00on par
Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Requins ↓

Etoile Filante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Requins or draw
79%
Requins or Etoile Filante
71%
Draw or Etoile Filante
50%

Winning margin

Requins wins by 2+
24%
Etoile Filante wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Requins 1+ goals
73%
Requins 2+ goals
37%
Requins 3+ goals
14%
Etoile Filante 1+ goals
52%
Etoile Filante 2+ goals
17%
Etoile Filante 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Requins (draw refunded)
71%
Etoile Filante (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Requins at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

Etoile Filante away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Requins attack 1.29 + Etoile Filante defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Etoile Filante attack 0.52 + Requins defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Requins scores more
50%
level
29%
Etoile Filante scores more
21%

Requins at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Requins will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Requins 2–1 Etoile Filante

Requins beat Etoile Filante 2-1 in Championnat National on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi in Abomey Calavi.