Republic of Ireland W 0–2 Wales W: Result & Stats

Republic of Ireland W

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Wales W

2/27/2024

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Republic of Ireland W40%

×Draw26%

Wales W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Republic of Ireland WExpected goals in this matchWales W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.25

Republic of Ireland W

1.38

Wales W

1.25

Republic of Ireland W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.75

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Republic of Ireland W

1.75

Wales W

1.00

allows per match

Republic of Ireland W

1.50

Wales W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Republic of Ireland W+0.00on par

Wales W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Republic of Ireland W ↓

Wales W →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Republic of Ireland W or draw

66%

Republic of Ireland W or Wales W

74%

Draw or Wales W

60%

Winning margin

Republic of Ireland W wins by 2+

19%

Wales W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Republic of Ireland W 1+ goals

75%

Republic of Ireland W 2+ goals

40%

Republic of Ireland W 3+ goals

16%

Wales W 1+ goals

71%

Wales W 2+ goals

36%

Wales W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Republic of Ireland W (draw refunded)

54%

Wales W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Republic of Ireland W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Wales W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Republic of Ireland W attack 1.75 + Wales W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Wales W attack 1.00 + Republic of Ireland W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Republic of Ireland W scores more

40%

level

26%

Wales W scores more

34%

Republic of Ireland W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Republic of Ireland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff