Republic of Ireland U21 vs Andorra U21 — League #850 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Republic of Ireland U2170%
Andorra U219%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Republic of Ireland U21 creates 266% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No67
- Yes33
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Republic of Ireland U21 ↓
Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Republic of Ireland U21 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches
Andorra U21 away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Republic of Ireland U21 attack 1.33 + Andorra U21 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83
Andorra U21 attack 0.00 + Republic of Ireland U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 70%?"
Republic of Ireland U21 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 70% does not mean "Republic of Ireland U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Poland U21
Spain U21
Switzerland U21
Croatia U21Republic of Ireland U21
Scotland U21
Belgium U21
Northern Ireland U21
Germany U21
England U21
Norway U21
Portugal U21
Kosovo U21
Czech Republic U21
Greece U21
Bulgaria U21
Montenegro U21
Bosnia-Herzegovina U21
Turkey U21
Slovenia U21
Latvia U21
France U21
Netherlands U21
Luxembourg U21
Azerbaijan U21
Finland U21
Slovakia U21
Austria U21
Italy U21Andorra U21
Georgia U21
Romania U21
Sweden U21
Wales U21
Belarus U21
Iceland U21
Moldova U21
Hungary U21
Denmark U21
Israel U21
Estonia U21
Ukraine U21
Faroe Islands U21
Kazakhstan U21
Lithuania U21
North Macedonia U21
Malta U21
Armenia U21
San Marino U21
Cyprus U21
Gibraltar U21If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Republic of Ireland U21 host Andorra U21 on Tuesday, 9 September 2025 at 18:30. The match is part of the League #850 2026/2027 season.
League #850: Republic of Ireland U21 1–0 Andorra U21
Republic of Ireland U21 beat Andorra U21 1-0 in League #850 on September 9, 2025.
Goals: M. Noonan (66').
The match was played at Tallaght Stadium in Dublin.