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Republic of Ireland U19 vs Slovenia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Republic of Ireland U19
Republic of Ireland U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Slovenia U19
Slovenia U19
3/22/2025UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Sportzentrum Windmühlenberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Republic of Ireland U1952%
×Draw25%
Slovenia U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Republic of Ireland U19
1.64
Slovenia U19
1.03

Republic of Ireland U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Republic of Ireland U19
1.65
Slovenia U19
1.06

allows per match

Republic of Ireland U19
1.00
Slovenia U19
1.63

finishing

Republic of Ireland U19+0.00on par
Slovenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Republic of Ireland U19 ↓

Slovenia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Republic of Ireland U19 or draw
76%
Republic of Ireland U19 or Slovenia U19
75%
Draw or Slovenia U19
48%

Winning margin

Republic of Ireland U19 wins by 2+
27%
Slovenia U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Republic of Ireland U19 1+ goals
81%
Republic of Ireland U19 2+ goals
49%
Republic of Ireland U19 3+ goals
23%
Slovenia U19 1+ goals
64%
Slovenia U19 2+ goals
28%
Slovenia U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Republic of Ireland U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Republic of Ireland U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Slovenia U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Republic of Ireland U19 attack 1.65 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.64

Slovenia U19 attack 1.06 + Republic of Ireland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Republic of Ireland U19 scores more
52%
level
25%
Slovenia U19 scores more
24%

Republic of Ireland U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Republic of Ireland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Republic of Ireland U19 1–1 Slovenia U19

Republic of Ireland U19 and Slovenia U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Windmühlenberg in Wolfsburg.