Republic of Ireland U19 3–3 Scotland U19

Republic of Ireland U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Scotland U19

C. Tollett 69'

K. McMahon-Brown 50'

O. McDonagh 39'

J. Teasdale 81'

T. North 54'

A. McCallion 30'

3/28/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualification - Round 1 - League A - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Republic of Ireland U1957%

×Draw23%

Scotland U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Republic of Ireland U19Expected goals in this matchScotland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.95

Republic of Ireland U19

1.77

Scotland U19

0.95

Republic of Ireland U19 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

1.65

creates per match

0.90

1.00

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Republic of Ireland U19

1.65

Scotland U19

0.90

allows per match

Republic of Ireland U19

1.00

Scotland U19

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Republic of Ireland U19+0.00on par

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Republic of Ireland U19 ↓

Scotland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Republic of Ireland U19 or draw

80%

Republic of Ireland U19 or Scotland U19

77%

Draw or Scotland U19

43%

Winning margin

Republic of Ireland U19 wins by 2+

32%

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Republic of Ireland U19 1+ goals

83%

Republic of Ireland U19 2+ goals

53%

Republic of Ireland U19 3+ goals

26%

Scotland U19 1+ goals

61%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

25%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Republic of Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Republic of Ireland U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Scotland U19 away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Republic of Ireland U19 attack 1.65 + Scotland U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.77

Scotland U19 attack 0.90 + Republic of Ireland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Republic of Ireland U19 scores more

57%

level

23%

Scotland U19 scores more

20%

Republic of Ireland U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Republic of Ireland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

A. McCallion↳ K. Gilligan

39'

O. McDonagh

50'

K. McMahon-Brown↳ R. Butler

54'

T. North↳ J. McGrath

61'

A. Solanke← B. Lee

61'

C. Tollett← C. Akinrintayo

69'

C. Tollett

72'

A. Smith← T. North

72'

A. Traynor← A. McCallion

78'

J. Teasdale← K. Gilligan

81'

J. Teasdale↳ C. Masson

84'

L. Davidson← F. Boyd

Republic

Scotland

1

6

5

3

18

8

A

Masson

16

⚽

▼

McCallion

17

A

▼

Gilligan

10

▼

Boyd

7

A

McGrath

9

⚽

▼

North

1

Noonan

2

A

Butler

13

Murphy

4

Sherlock

5

⚽

7

6

11

20

▼

Lee

15

▼

Akinrinta

9

⚽

McMahon-B

Manager: T. Mohan

61'▲A. Solanke←▼B. Lee

61'▲C. Tollett←▼C. Akinrintayo

Republic of Ireland U19 substitutes

16Cullen3Solanke8McAteer10Atherton12Tollett14Ogbonna17Cullen19Oladiti21O'Neill

72'▲A. Smith←▼T. North

72'▲A. Traynor←▼A. McCallion

78'▲J. Teasdale←▼K. Gilligan

84'▲L. Davidson←▼F. Boyd

Scotland U19 substitutes

12Shaw2McAllister4Glasgow13Borland14Smith15Traynor19Davidson20Teasdale

Match Recap: Republic of Ireland U19 vs Scotland U19

Republic of Ireland U19 and Scotland U19 drew 3-3 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 28, 2026.

Goals: A. McCallion (30'), O. McDonagh (39'), K. McMahon-Brown (50'), T. North (54'), C. Tollett (69'), J. Teasdale (81').

Republic of Ireland U19 vs Scotland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Republic of Ireland U19 vs Scotland U19