Republic of Ireland U19 0–0 Moldova U19

Republic of Ireland U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Moldova U19

11/13/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Republic of Ireland U1974%

×Draw17%

Moldova U199%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Republic of Ireland U19Expected goals in this matchMoldova U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.67

Republic of Ireland U19

2.29

Moldova U19

0.67

Republic of Ireland U19 creates 242% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

1.65

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

2.92

creates per match

Republic of Ireland U19

1.65

Moldova U19

0.33

allows per match

Republic of Ireland U19

1.00

Moldova U19

2.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Republic of Ireland U19+0.00on par

Moldova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Republic of Ireland U19 ↓

Moldova U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Republic of Ireland U19 or draw

91%

Republic of Ireland U19 or Moldova U19

83%

Draw or Moldova U19

26%

Winning margin

Republic of Ireland U19 wins by 2+

50%

Moldova U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Republic of Ireland U19 1+ goals

90%

Republic of Ireland U19 2+ goals

66%

Republic of Ireland U19 3+ goals

40%

Moldova U19 1+ goals

49%

Moldova U19 2+ goals

15%

Moldova U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Republic of Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

89%

Moldova U19 (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Republic of Ireland U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Moldova U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Republic of Ireland U19 attack 1.65 + Moldova U19 defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.29

Moldova U19 attack 0.33 + Republic of Ireland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Republic of Ireland U19 scores more

74%

level

17%

Moldova U19 scores more

9%

Republic of Ireland U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Republic of Ireland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

S. Ashbee

48'

J. Devaney

65'

I. Orazi← Cathal OSullivan

70'

74'

74'

78'

78'

L. Moșneagu← B. Musteață

78'

M. Chaaban← N. Sula

80'

M. Chaaban

90+4'

L. Mosneagu

90+7'

J. Devaney

90+7'

J. Devaney

90'

S. Roga← M. Chaaban

Republic

Moldova

1

5

6

17

13

4

8

10

▼

Musteață

7

Sprinsean

15

▼

Sava

9

▼

16

3

5

8

10

▼

Razi

4

Turley

6

Devaney

7

▼

O'Sulliva

2

Morley

11

Koné-Dohe

18

▼

Okosun

Manager: T. Mohan

65'▲I. Orazi←▼Cathal OSullivan

74'▲C. Dillon←▼N. Okosun

74'▲A. Moloney←▼N. Razi

Republic of Ireland U19 substitutes

14Orazi9Dillon20Moloney13McCarthy15Patton12Grante21McAndrew1Cooney19Keogh

Manager: S. Cebotari

70'▲D. Sîrbu←▼I. Sava

78'▲L. Moșneagu←▼B. Musteață

78'▲M. Chaaban←▼N. Sula

90'▲S. Roga←▼M. Chaaban

Moldova U19 substitutes

16Sîrbu3Moșneagu19Chaaban11Roga18Sosnovschi20Dimitrișin14Cȋrnaţ2Fortună12Socolov

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Republic of Ireland U19 0–0 Moldova U19

Republic of Ireland U19 and Moldova U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Nisporeni.

Republic of Ireland U19 vs Moldova U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Republic of Ireland U19 0–0 Moldova U19