Republic of Ireland U19 6–0 Gibraltar U19

Republic of Ireland U19

FT

6 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gibraltar U19

K. Gonzalez 90+1' (OG)

N. Fraser 76'

T. Lonergan 75'

M. O’Mahony 58', 55', 12'

9/21/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Central Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Republic of Ireland U1993%

×Draw5%

Gibraltar U192%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Republic of Ireland U19Expected goals in this matchGibraltar U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.04

0.50

Republic of Ireland U19

4.04

Gibraltar U19

0.50

Republic of Ireland U19 creates 708% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

1.65

creates per match

0.00

1.00

allows per match

6.42

creates per match

Republic of Ireland U19

1.65

Gibraltar U19

0.00

allows per match

Republic of Ireland U19

1.00

Gibraltar U19

6.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Republic of Ireland U19+0.00on par

Gibraltar U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Republic of Ireland U19 ↓

Gibraltar U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–013%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Republic of Ireland U19 or draw

98%

Republic of Ireland U19 or Gibraltar U19

95%

Draw or Gibraltar U19

7%

Winning margin

Republic of Ireland U19 wins by 2+

81%

Gibraltar U19 wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Republic of Ireland U19 1+ goals

98%

Republic of Ireland U19 2+ goals

90%

Republic of Ireland U19 3+ goals

74%

Gibraltar U19 1+ goals

39%

Gibraltar U19 2+ goals

9%

Gibraltar U19 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Republic of Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

98%

Gibraltar U19 (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Republic of Ireland U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Gibraltar U19 away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Republic of Ireland U19 attack 1.65 + Gibraltar U19 defence 6.42 → ÷2 → 4.04

Gibraltar U19 attack 0.00 + Republic of Ireland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Republic of Ireland U19 scores more

93%

level

5%

Gibraltar U19 scores more

2%

Republic of Ireland U19 at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Republic of Ireland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

36'

46'

55'

58'

60'

N. Fraser← M. O’Mahony

60'

R. Maher← R. Vata

62'

J. Soiza← S. Perera

62'

M. Emrani← J. Caetano

68'

E. McJannet← J. Ferizaj

68'

T. Lonergan← H. Vaughan

70'

K. Zefi

72'

F. Huart← F. Cawthorn

75'

76'

81'

84'

85'

90+1'

K. GonzalezOwn goal

Republic

Gibraltar

1

Victor

4

▼

Britto

19

▼

Caetano

5

Busto

8

▼

Perera

2

▼

Soiza

11

🥅

Gonzalez

9

▼

7

3

6

1

▼

2

5

4

3

11

10

▼

Vaughan

7

▼

Vata

8

▼

Ferizaj

15

Gallagher

9

⚽3

▼

O’Mahony

Manager: T. Mohan

60'▲N. Fraser←▼M. O’Mahony

60'▲R. Maher←▼R. Vata

68'▲E. McJannet←▼J. Ferizaj

68'▲T. Lonergan←▼H. Vaughan

85'▲A. Maguire←▼R. Byrne

Republic of Ireland U19 substitutes

19Fraser18Maher6McJannet17Lonergan23Maguire13Okagbue20Umeh12Nevin14Clarke

Manager: M. Martin

46'▲J. Villa←▼L. Soiza

62'▲J. Soiza←▼S. Perera

62'▲M. Emrani←▼J. Caetano

72'▲F. Huart←▼F. Cawthorn

81'▲J. Negron←▼J. Britto

Gibraltar U19 substitutes

18Villa15Soiza10Emrani12Huart20Negron17Buckley16Colton14Zammitt13Mifsud