Republic of Ireland U19 1–0 Estonia U19

Republic of Ireland U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estonia U19

K. Zefi 67' (pen)

3/25/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Ferrycarrig Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Republic of Ireland U1960%

×Draw23%

Estonia U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Republic of Ireland U19Expected goals in this matchEstonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.82

Republic of Ireland U19

1.79

Estonia U19

0.82

Republic of Ireland U19 creates 118% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

1.65

creates per match

0.64

1.00

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Republic of Ireland U19

1.65

Estonia U19

0.64

allows per match

Republic of Ireland U19

1.00

Estonia U19

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Republic of Ireland U19+0.00on par

Estonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Republic of Ireland U19 ↓

Estonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Republic of Ireland U19 or draw

83%

Republic of Ireland U19 or Estonia U19

77%

Draw or Estonia U19

40%

Winning margin

Republic of Ireland U19 wins by 2+

35%

Estonia U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Republic of Ireland U19 1+ goals

83%

Republic of Ireland U19 2+ goals

53%

Republic of Ireland U19 3+ goals

26%

Estonia U19 1+ goals

56%

Estonia U19 2+ goals

20%

Estonia U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Republic of Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Estonia U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Republic of Ireland U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Estonia U19 away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Republic of Ireland U19 attack 1.65 + Estonia U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.79

Estonia U19 attack 0.64 + Republic of Ireland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Republic of Ireland U19 scores more

60%

level

23%

Estonia U19 scores more

17%

Republic of Ireland U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Republic of Ireland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

47'

54'

65'

67'

J. Ferizaj← H. Vaughan

67'

T. Lonergan← M. O’Mahony

67'

G. Lehtmets← R. Smirnov

67'

K. ZefiPenalty

68'

J. Abankwah

70'

S. Merilai

70'

K. Kait

72'

77'

R. Sillamaa← K. Mustmaa

78'

85'

85'

85'

86'

86'

R. Ernits← S. Merilai

88'

O. Gallagher← K. Zefi

89'

J. Ryan← R. Vata

90+3'

O. Gallagher

Republic

Estonia

1

Nõmm

5

Palutaja

15

▼

2

8

6

3

14

▼

Smirnov

9

▼

Õunapuu

7

▼

Luts

17

▼

16

5

4

3

13

11

⚽

▼

Zefi

10

▼

Vaughan

7

▼

Vata

8

McManus

6

McJannet

9

▼

O’Mahony

Manager: T. Mohan

67'▲J. Ferizaj←▼H. Vaughan

67'▲T. Lonergan←▼M. O’Mahony

88'▲O. Gallagher←▼K. Zefi

89'▲J. Ryan←▼R. Vata

Republic of Ireland U19 substitutes

18Ferizaj17Lonergan15Gallagher14Ryan20Umeh12Nevin1Byrne19Moore

Manager: A. Bärengrub

67'▲G. Lehtmets←▼R. Smirnov

77'▲R. Sillamaa←▼K. Mustmaa

78'▲M. Orlov←▼E. Õunapuu

86'▲M. Kolobov←▼D. Luts

86'▲R. Ernits←▼S. Merilai

Estonia U19 substitutes

10Lehtmets11Sillamaa20Orlov23Kolobov18Ernits16Sakarias13Švedovski12Pareiko4Otti

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Republic of Ireland U19 1–0 Estonia U19

Republic of Ireland U19 beat Estonia U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 25, 2023.

Goals: K. Zefi (67' pen).

The match was played at Ferrycarrig Park in Newcastle, Crossabeg.

Republic of Ireland U19 vs Estonia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Republic of Ireland U19 1–0 Estonia U19