Republic of Ireland U19 1–1 Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

Republic of Ireland U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

J. Kenny 26'

A. Kahvić 43'

11/13/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Republic of Ireland U1950%

×Draw24%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Republic of Ireland U19Expected goals in this matchBosnia-Herzegovina U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.15

Republic of Ireland U19

1.68

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.15

Republic of Ireland U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

1.65

creates per match

1.29

1.00

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Republic of Ireland U19

1.65

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.29

allows per match

Republic of Ireland U19

1.00

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Republic of Ireland U19+0.00on par

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Republic of Ireland U19 ↓

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Republic of Ireland U19 or draw

74%

Republic of Ireland U19 or Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

76%

Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

50%

Winning margin

Republic of Ireland U19 wins by 2+

27%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Republic of Ireland U19 1+ goals

81%

Republic of Ireland U19 2+ goals

50%

Republic of Ireland U19 3+ goals

24%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1+ goals

68%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2+ goals

32%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Republic of Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Republic of Ireland U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Republic of Ireland U19 attack 1.65 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.68

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 attack 1.29 + Republic of Ireland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Republic of Ireland U19 scores more

50%

level

24%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 scores more

26%

Republic of Ireland U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Republic of Ireland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

J. Kenny

43'

A. Kahvić

46'

K. Corbally← J. Henry-Francis

46'

E. Kulašin← E. Mehmedović

71'

K. Zefi← J. Kenny

71'

A. Bristrić← F. Čuić

88'

A. Emakhu← V. Adedokun

89'

M. Buljubašić← M. Šakota

90+4'

T. Ramić← A. Krdžalić

Republic

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1

6

17

2

10

▼

Mehmedovi

16

Kapetanov

7

▼

Krdžalić

19

Sučić

9

⚽

Kahvić

11

▼

Čuić

15

▼

16

5

3

11

4

8

▼

2

9

6

15

▼

Adedokun

7

⚽

▼

Kenny

Manager: T. Mohan

46'▲K. Corbally←▼J. Henry-Francis

71'▲K. Zefi←▼J. Kenny

88'▲A. Emakhu←▼V. Adedokun

Republic of Ireland U19 substitutes

18Corbally17Zefi19Emakhu20Hayes12Okagbue1Rose10Caffrey14Curtis13Roughan

Manager: I. Barbarić

46'▲E. Kulašin←▼E. Mehmedović

71'▲A. Bristrić←▼F. Čuić

89'▲M. Buljubašić←▼M. Šakota

90+4'▲T. Ramić←▼A. Krdžalić

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 substitutes

14Kulašin18Bristrić13Buljubašić20Ramić3Račić4Vrankić5Trako12Damjanović