Republic of Ireland U19 3–1 Albania U19

Republic of Ireland U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Albania U19

11/15/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Republic of Ireland U1972%

×Draw18%

Albania U1910%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Republic of Ireland U19Expected goals in this matchAlbania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

0.70

Republic of Ireland U19

2.22

Albania U19

0.70

Republic of Ireland U19 creates 217% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

1.65

creates per match

0.40

1.00

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Republic of Ireland U19

1.65

Albania U19

0.40

allows per match

Republic of Ireland U19

1.00

Albania U19

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Republic of Ireland U19+0.00on par

Albania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Republic of Ireland U19 ↓

Albania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Republic of Ireland U19 or draw

90%

Republic of Ireland U19 or Albania U19

82%

Draw or Albania U19

28%

Winning margin

Republic of Ireland U19 wins by 2+

48%

Albania U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Republic of Ireland U19 1+ goals

89%

Republic of Ireland U19 2+ goals

65%

Republic of Ireland U19 3+ goals

38%

Albania U19 1+ goals

50%

Albania U19 2+ goals

16%

Albania U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Republic of Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Albania U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Republic of Ireland U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Albania U19 away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Republic of Ireland U19 attack 1.65 + Albania U19 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.22

Albania U19 attack 0.40 + Republic of Ireland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Republic of Ireland U19 scores more

72%

level

18%

Albania U19 scores more

10%

Republic of Ireland U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Republic of Ireland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff