Řepiště 0–2 Polanka nad Odrou: Result & Stats

Řepiště

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Polanka nad Odrou

9/28/2024

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 9Řepiště trava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Řepiště27%

×Draw23%

Polanka nad Odrou50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŘepištěExpected goals in this matchPolanka nad Odrou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.88

Řepiště

1.34

Polanka nad Odrou

1.88

Polanka nad Odrou creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 63 away

1.53

creates per match

1.78

1.97

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Řepiště

1.53

Polanka nad Odrou

1.78

allows per match

Řepiště

1.97

Polanka nad Odrou

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Řepiště+0.00on par

Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Řepiště ↓

Polanka nad Odrou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Řepiště or draw

50%

Řepiště or Polanka nad Odrou

77%

Draw or Polanka nad Odrou

73%

Winning margin

Řepiště wins by 2+

12%

Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Řepiště 1+ goals

74%

Řepiště 2+ goals

39%

Řepiště 3+ goals

15%

Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals

85%

Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals

56%

Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Řepiště (draw refunded)

35%

Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Řepiště at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Polanka nad Odrou away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Řepiště attack 1.53 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Řepiště defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Řepiště scores more

27%

level

23%

Polanka nad Odrou scores more

50%

Polanka nad Odrou at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff