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Řepiště vs Opava II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Řepiště
Řepiště
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Opava II
Opava II
8/3/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 1Řepiště trava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Řepiště35%
×Draw23%
Opava II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Řepiště
1.57
Opava II
1.74

Opava II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 74 away

creates per match

Řepiště
1.53
Opava II
1.51

allows per match

Řepiště
1.97
Opava II
1.61

finishing

Řepiště+0.00on par
Opava II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Řepiště ↓

Opava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Řepiště or draw
58%
Řepiště or Opava II
77%
Draw or Opava II
65%

Winning margin

Řepiště wins by 2+
17%
Opava II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Řepiště 1+ goals
79%
Řepiště 2+ goals
46%
Řepiště 3+ goals
21%
Opava II 1+ goals
82%
Opava II 2+ goals
52%
Opava II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Řepiště (draw refunded)
45%
Opava II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Řepiště at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Opava II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Řepiště attack 1.53 + Opava II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Opava II attack 1.51 + Řepiště defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Řepiště scores more
35%
level
23%
Opava II scores more
42%

Opava II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Opava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Řepiště 2–2 Opava II

Řepiště and Opava II drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Řepiště trava in Řepiště.