Řepiště 0–2 Jiskra Rýmařov: Result & Stats

Řepiště

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Jiskra Rýmařov

8/31/2024

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 5Řepiště trava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Řepiště36%

×Draw23%

Jiskra Rýmařov41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŘepištěExpected goals in this matchJiskra Rýmařov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.73

Řepiště

1.61

Jiskra Rýmařov

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

1.53

creates per match

1.48

1.97

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Řepiště

1.53

Jiskra Rýmařov

1.48

allows per match

Řepiště

1.97

Jiskra Rýmařov

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Řepiště+0.00on par

Jiskra Rýmařov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Řepiště ↓

Jiskra Rýmařov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Řepiště or draw

59%

Řepiště or Jiskra Rýmařov

77%

Draw or Jiskra Rýmařov

64%

Winning margin

Řepiště wins by 2+

18%

Jiskra Rýmařov wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Řepiště 1+ goals

80%

Řepiště 2+ goals

48%

Řepiště 3+ goals

22%

Jiskra Rýmařov 1+ goals

82%

Jiskra Rýmařov 2+ goals

52%

Jiskra Rýmařov 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Řepiště (draw refunded)

47%

Jiskra Rýmařov (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Řepiště at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Jiskra Rýmařov away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.70 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Řepiště attack 1.53 + Jiskra Rýmařov defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Jiskra Rýmařov attack 1.48 + Řepiště defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Řepiště scores more

36%

level

23%

Jiskra Rýmařov scores more

41%

Jiskra Rýmařov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jiskra Rýmařov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff