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Řepiště vs Bílovec — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Řepiště
Řepiště
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bílovec
Bílovec
5/18/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 26Řepiště trava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Řepiště32%
×Draw23%
Bílovec45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Řepiště
1.48
Bílovec
1.80

Bílovec creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 71 away

creates per match

Řepiště
1.53
Bílovec
1.63

allows per match

Řepiště
1.97
Bílovec
1.44

finishing

Řepiště+0.00on par
Bílovec+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Řepiště ↓

Bílovec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Řepiště or draw
55%
Řepiště or Bílovec
77%
Draw or Bílovec
68%

Winning margin

Řepiště wins by 2+
15%
Bílovec wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Řepiště 1+ goals
77%
Řepiště 2+ goals
43%
Řepiště 3+ goals
19%
Bílovec 1+ goals
83%
Bílovec 2+ goals
54%
Bílovec 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Řepiště (draw refunded)
41%
Bílovec (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Řepiště at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Bílovec away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.44 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Řepiště attack 1.53 + Bílovec defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bílovec attack 1.63 + Řepiště defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Řepiště scores more
32%
level
23%
Bílovec scores more
45%

Bílovec at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bílovec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Řepiště vs Bílovec

Řepiště beat Bílovec 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Řepiště trava in Řepiště.