Rep. Of Ireland 1–1 Senegal: Result & Stats

Rep. Of Ireland

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Senegal

Kasey McAteer 21'

Ismaïla Sarr 82'

6/6/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Aviva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rep. Of Ireland50%

×Draw26%

Senegal24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rep. Of IrelandExpected goals in this matchSenegal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.98

Rep. Of Ireland

1.53

Senegal

0.98

Rep. Of Ireland creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

1.65

creates per match

1.08

0.88

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Rep. Of Ireland

1.65

Senegal

1.08

allows per match

Rep. Of Ireland

0.88

Senegal

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Senegal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rep. Of Ireland ↓

Senegal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rep. Of Ireland or draw

76%

Rep. Of Ireland or Senegal

74%

Draw or Senegal

50%

Winning margin

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

26%

Senegal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

78%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

45%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

20%

Senegal 1+ goals

62%

Senegal 2+ goals

26%

Senegal 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

67%

Senegal (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rep. Of Ireland at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Senegal away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rep. Of Ireland attack 1.65 + Senegal defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Senegal attack 1.08 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

50%

level

26%

Senegal scores more

24%

Rep. Of Ireland at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rep. Of Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Abdoulaye Seck

Senegal · D

7.5

Match Events

21'

Kasey McAteer

58'

Evan Ferguson← Jack Taylor

63'

Ismaïla Sarr← Abdallah Sima

63'

Lamine Camara← Krépin Diatta

67'

Jake O'Brien← Ryan Manning

67'

Killian Phillips← Matt Doherty

77'

Cherif Ndiaye← Boulaye Dia

77'

Cheick Tidiane Sabaly← Mamadou Lamine Camara

81'

Andrew Moran← Will Smallbone

81'

Festy Ebosele← Kasey McAteer

82'

Ismaïla Sarr

85'

Liam Scales← Robbie Brady

85'

El Hadji Malick Diouf← Ismail Jakobs

90+2'

Adam Idah

90+2'

Cherif Ndiaye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Rep.Senegal

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots12

8Corners5

11Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots12

3On Target4

2Off Target5

3Blocked3

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

338Total Passes454

272Accurate Passes402

80%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0