Rep. Of Ireland 0–0 Northern Ireland

Rep. Of Ireland

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Northern Ireland

11/15/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Aviva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rep. Of Ireland52%

×Draw25%

Northern Ireland23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rep. Of IrelandExpected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.00

Rep. Of Ireland

1.63

Northern Ireland

1.00

Rep. Of Ireland creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

1.65

creates per match

1.13

0.88

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Rep. Of Ireland

1.65

Northern Ireland

1.13

allows per match

Rep. Of Ireland

0.88

Northern Ireland

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rep. Of Ireland ↓

Northern Ireland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rep. Of Ireland or draw

77%

Rep. Of Ireland or Northern Ireland

75%

Draw or Northern Ireland

48%

Winning margin

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

28%

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

80%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

48%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

22%

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

63%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

26%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

69%

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rep. Of Ireland at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rep. Of Ireland attack 1.65 + Northern Ireland defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.63

Northern Ireland attack 1.13 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

52%

level

25%

Northern Ireland scores more

23%

Rep. Of Ireland at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rep. Of Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Darragh Lenihan

36'

C. Hourihane← G. Whelan

46'

61'

63'

65'

66'

S. Maguire← C. Robinson

66'

E. Stevens← J. McClean

71'

K. Lafferty← L. Boyce

74'

J. Ward← M. Smith

76'

George Saville

80'

S. Hogan← S. Maguire

84'

C. Christie← D. Lenihan

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Rep.Northern

Overview

39%Possession61%

6Total Shots9

3Corners11

11Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots9

2On Target3

4Off Target6

Passing

39%Possession61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0