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Rep. Of Ireland vs Lithuania — Friendlies 2026

Rep. Of Ireland
Rep. Of Ireland
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lithuania
Lithuania
T. Parrott 90+7'
3/29/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Aviva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rep. Of Ireland62%
×Draw23%
Lithuania15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rep. Of Ireland
1.78
Lithuania
0.75

Rep. Of Ireland creates 137% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

creates per match

Rep. Of Ireland
1.65
Lithuania
0.62

allows per match

Rep. Of Ireland
0.88
Lithuania
1.92

finishing

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par
Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rep. Of Ireland ↓

Lithuania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rep. Of Ireland or draw
85%
Rep. Of Ireland or Lithuania
77%
Draw or Lithuania
38%

Winning margin

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+
36%
Lithuania wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals
83%
Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals
53%
Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals
26%
Lithuania 1+ goals
53%
Lithuania 2+ goals
17%
Lithuania 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)
80%
Lithuania (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rep. Of Ireland at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rep. Of Ireland attack 1.65 + Lithuania defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.78

Lithuania attack 0.62 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Rep. Of Ireland scores more
62%
level
23%
Lithuania scores more
15%

Rep. Of Ireland at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rep. Of Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
D. Kazlauskas← T. Milašius
55'
Vykintas Slivka
61'
I. Kružikas← A. Klimavičius
63'
J. McClean← D. OShea
63'
T. Parrott← W. Keane
75'
Fedor Černych
77'
S. Hogan← C. Robinson
82'
J. Knight← C. Ogbene
82'
J. Hendrick← A. Browne
82'
P. Širvys← J. Lasickas
87'
G. Sirgedas← F. Černych
90+7'
T. Parrott

Possession

67%Rep.

Shots

15Rep.

Statistics

Rep.Lithuania
Overview
67%Possession33%
15Total Shots2
10Corners3
9Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots2
5On Target1
10Off Target1
Passing
67%Possession33%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls13
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
5Offsides2

Match Recap: Rep. Of Ireland vs Lithuania

Rep. Of Ireland beat Lithuania 1-0 in Friendlies on March 29, 2022.

Goals: T. Parrott (90+7').

Rep. Of Ireland controlled possession (67%) and registered 15 shots to 2.

The match was played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin.