Rep. Of Ireland 3–2 Latvia: Result & Stats

Rep. Of Ireland

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Evan Ferguson 17'

Artūrs Zjuzins 45+1'

3/22/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Aviva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Rep. Of Ireland52%

×Draw25%

Latvia23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rep. Of IrelandExpected goals in this matchLatvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.94

Rep. Of Ireland

1.57

Latvia

0.94

Rep. Of Ireland creates 67% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

1.65

creates per match

1.00

0.88

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Rep. Of Ireland

1.65

Latvia

1.00

allows per match

Rep. Of Ireland

0.88

Latvia

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Latvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rep. Of Ireland ↓

Latvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rep. Of Ireland or draw

77%

Rep. Of Ireland or Latvia

75%

Draw or Latvia

48%

Winning margin

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

27%

Latvia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

79%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

46%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

21%

Latvia 1+ goals

61%

Latvia 2+ goals

24%

Latvia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

70%

Latvia (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rep. Of Ireland at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Latvia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rep. Of Ireland attack 1.65 + Latvia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Latvia attack 1.00 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

52%

level

25%

Latvia scores more

23%

Rep. Of Ireland at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rep. Of Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Will Smallbone

Rep. Of Ireland · M

8.5

Match Events

6'

Callum O'Dowda↳ Will Smallbone

17'

Evan Ferguson↳ Michael Obafemi

33'

Roberts Uldriķis↳ Vladislavs Sorokins

45+1'

Artūrs Zjuzins

46'

Mārcis Ošs← Daniels Balodis

56'

Raimonds Krollis← Vladislavs Gutkovskis

63'

Chiedozie Ogbene← Matt Doherty

63'

John Egan← Andrew Omobamidele

64'

Chiedozie Ogbene

64'

Michael Johnston← Michael Obafemi

66'

Alvis Jaunzems← Jānis Ikaunieks

69'

Andrejs Cigaņiks

71'

Aleksejs Saveljevs← Artūrs Zjuzins

71'

Renārs Varslavāns← Andrejs Cigaņiks

73'

Troy Parrott← Evan Ferguson

77'

James McClean← Callum O'Dowda

81'

Dāvis Ikaunieks← Roberts Uldriķis

82'

Jeff Hendrick← Will Smallbone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Rep.Latvia

Overview

69%Possession31%

18Total Shots6

10Corners1

4Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots6

6On Target3

9Off Target3

3Blocked0

13Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

677Total Passes300

597Accurate Passes231

88%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

4Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0