Rep. Of Ireland 2–1 Hungary: Result & Stats

Rep. Of Ireland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hungary

T. Parrott 90+2'

A. Idah 36'

Á. Lang 40'

6/4/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Aviva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rep. Of Ireland46%

×Draw26%

Hungary28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rep. Of IrelandExpected goals in this matchHungary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.10

Rep. Of Ireland

1.49

Hungary

1.10

Rep. Of Ireland creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

1.65

creates per match

1.33

0.88

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Rep. Of Ireland

1.65

Hungary

1.33

allows per match

Rep. Of Ireland

0.88

Hungary

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Hungary+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rep. Of Ireland ↓

Hungary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rep. Of Ireland or draw

72%

Rep. Of Ireland or Hungary

74%

Draw or Hungary

54%

Winning margin

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

23%

Hungary wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

77%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

44%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

19%

Hungary 1+ goals

67%

Hungary 2+ goals

30%

Hungary 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

62%

Hungary (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rep. Of Ireland at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Hungary away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rep. Of Ireland attack 1.65 + Hungary defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.49

Hungary attack 1.33 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

46%

level

26%

Hungary scores more

28%

Rep. Of Ireland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rep. Of Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Szoboszlai

Hungary · F

7.7

Match Events

36'

A. Idah↳ W. Smallbone

40'

Á. Lang↳ W. Orbán

46'

L. Scales← S. Duffy

46'

J. O'Brien← M. Doherty

46'

D. Dibusz← P. Gulácsi

46'

E. Botka← L. Négo

62'

C. O'Dowda← R. Brady

62'

T. Parrott← F. Azaz

62'

L. Kleinheisler← B. Varga

65'

65'

70'

71'

71'

C. Styles← A. Schäfer

73'

78'

79'

85'

90'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Rep.Hungary

Overview

44%Possession56%

4Total Shots12

1Corners7

13Fouls13

Shots

4Total Shots12

2On Target6

2Off Target4

0Blocked2

4Inside Box6

0Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

472Total Passes605

382Accurate Passes526

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2