Rep. Of Ireland 5–0 Grenada: Result & Stats

Rep. Of Ireland

5 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Grenada

5/16/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalEstadio Enrique Roca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rep. Of Ireland58%

×Draw23%

Grenada19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rep. Of IrelandExpected goals in this matchGrenada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.94

Rep. Of Ireland

1.82

Grenada

0.94

Rep. Of Ireland creates 94% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

1.65

creates per match

1.00

0.88

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Rep. Of Ireland

1.65

Grenada

1.00

allows per match

Rep. Of Ireland

0.88

Grenada

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Grenada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rep. Of Ireland ↓

Grenada →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rep. Of Ireland or draw

81%

Rep. Of Ireland or Grenada

77%

Draw or Grenada

42%

Winning margin

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

33%

Grenada wins by 2+

Team goals

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

84%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

54%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

27%

Grenada 1+ goals

61%

Grenada 2+ goals

24%

Grenada 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

75%

Grenada (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rep. Of Ireland at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Grenada away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rep. Of Ireland attack 1.65 + Grenada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Grenada attack 1.00 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

58%

level

23%

Grenada scores more

19%

Rep. Of Ireland at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rep. Of Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff