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Rep. Of Ireland vs Austria — League #32 2026

Rep. Of Ireland
Rep. Of Ireland
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Austria
Austria
J. Walters 85'
M. Hinteregger 31'
6/11/2017League #32League #32 · 1st Round - 6Aviva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rep. Of Ireland46%
×Draw28%
Austria26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rep. Of Ireland
1.30
Austria
0.91

Rep. Of Ireland creates 43% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Rep. Of Ireland
0.86
Austria
1.25

allows per match

Rep. Of Ireland
0.57
Austria
1.75

finishing

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par
Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rep. Of Ireland ↓

Austria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rep. Of Ireland or draw
74%
Rep. Of Ireland or Austria
72%
Draw or Austria
54%

Winning margin

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+
21%
Austria wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals
73%
Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals
37%
Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals
14%
Austria 1+ goals
60%
Austria 2+ goals
23%
Austria 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)
64%
Austria (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rep. Of Ireland at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Austria away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.86 + Austria defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.30

Austria attack 1.25 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rep. Of Ireland scores more
46%
level
28%
Austria scores more
26%

Rep. Of Ireland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rep. Of Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
M. HintereggerAustriaAustria · D
7.7

Match Events

29'
Robbie Brady
31'
M. Hinteregger↳ D. Alaba
32'
Cyrus Christie
56'
D. Murphy← S. Ward
71'
W. Hoolahan← H. Arter
75'
M. Harnik← G. Burgstaller
77'
A. McGeady← G. Whelan
79'
F. Grillitsch← Z. Junuzović
85'
J. Walters↳ R. Brady
90'
M. Gregoritsch← F. Kainz

Possession

53%Rep.

Shots

15Rep.

Pass accuracy

51%Rep.

Statistics

Rep.Austria
Overview
53%Possession47%
15Total Shots10
6Corners6
13Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots10
2On Target3
8Off Target3
5Blocked4
10Inside Box8
5Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
395Total Passes350
283Accurate Passes238
72%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Rep. Of Ireland vs Austria

Rep. Of Ireland and Austria drew 1-1 in League #32 on June 11, 2017.

Goals: M. Hinteregger (31'), J. Walters (85').

Rep. Of Ireland controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin.