Rentistas 1–1 Villa Espanola: Result & Stats

Rentistas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Villa Espanola

M. Callorda 26'

S. López 87'

8/24/2019

Segunda División · Round 14Complejo Deportivo Rentistas (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Rentistas39%

×Draw29%

Villa Espanola32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RentistasExpected goals in this matchVilla Espanola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.04

Rentistas

1.17

Villa Espanola

1.04

Rentistas creates 13% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 43 away

1.14

creates per match

1.26

0.83

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Rentistas

1.14

Villa Espanola

1.26

allows per match

Rentistas

0.83

Villa Espanola

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rentistas+0.00on par

Villa Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rentistas ↓

Villa Espanola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rentistas or draw

68%

Rentistas or Villa Espanola

71%

Draw or Villa Espanola

61%

Winning margin

Rentistas wins by 2+

16%

Villa Espanola wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rentistas 1+ goals

69%

Rentistas 2+ goals

33%

Rentistas 3+ goals

11%

Villa Espanola 1+ goals

65%

Villa Espanola 2+ goals

28%

Villa Espanola 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rentistas (draw refunded)

55%

Villa Espanola (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rentistas at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.83 · 84 matches

Villa Espanola away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rentistas attack 1.14 + Villa Espanola defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Villa Espanola attack 1.26 + Rentistas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rentistas scores more

39%

level

29%

Villa Espanola scores more

32%

Rentistas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rentistas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

61'

64'

72'

78'

78'

85'

I. Yepez← M. Ferreira

87'

S. López

Rentistas

Villa

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Capuccio

64'▲C. Rivero←▼H. Acuña

78'▲G. Vega←▼R. César

Rentistas substitutes

RiveroVegaBautistaParadaRoccaRossiLerman

Manager: D. Santín

72'▲L. Silva←▼D. Costa

78'▲S. López←▼R. Dorrego

85'▲I. Yepez←▼M. Ferreira

Villa Espanola substitutes

SilvaLópezYepezTizónRodríguezAllendePintos

Match Recap: Rentistas vs Villa Espanola

Rentistas and Villa Espanola drew 1-1 in Segunda División on August 24, 2019.

Goals: M. Callorda (26'), S. López (87').

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Rentistas (Montevideo).

Rentistas vs Villa Espanola — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rentistas vs Villa Espanola