Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rentistas vs Potencia — Segunda División 2026

Rentistas
Rentistas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Potencia
Potencia
6/17/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 7Complejo Deportivo Rentistas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rentistas53%
×Draw28%
Potencia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rentistas
1.35
Potencia
0.67

Rentistas creates 101% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 16 away

creates per match

Rentistas
1.14
Potencia
0.44

allows per match

Rentistas
0.90
Potencia
1.56

finishing

Rentistas+0.00on par
Potencia+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rentistas ↓

Potencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rentistas or draw
81%
Rentistas or Potencia
72%
Draw or Potencia
47%

Winning margin

Rentistas wins by 2+
26%
Potencia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rentistas 1+ goals
74%
Rentistas 2+ goals
39%
Rentistas 3+ goals
15%
Potencia 1+ goals
49%
Potencia 2+ goals
15%
Potencia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Rentistas (draw refunded)
74%
Potencia (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rentistas at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.90 · 83 matches

Potencia away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rentistas attack 1.14 + Potencia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Potencia attack 0.44 + Rentistas defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rentistas scores more
53%
level
28%
Potencia scores more
19%

Rentistas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rentistas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Rentistas 0–0 Potencia

Rentistas and Potencia drew 0-0 in Segunda División on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Rentistas in Montevideo.