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Rentistas vs Cerrito — Segunda División 2026

Rentistas
Rentistas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cerrito
Cerrito
5/18/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 2Complejo Deportivo Rentistas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Rentistas43%
×Draw28%
Cerrito29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rentistas
1.29
Cerrito
1.00

Rentistas creates 29% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 96 away

creates per match

Rentistas
1.14
Cerrito
1.09

allows per match

Rentistas
0.90
Cerrito
1.44

finishing

Rentistas+0.00on par
Cerrito+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rentistas ↓

Cerrito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rentistas or draw
71%
Rentistas or Cerrito
72%
Draw or Cerrito
57%

Winning margin

Rentistas wins by 2+
20%
Cerrito wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rentistas 1+ goals
72%
Rentistas 2+ goals
37%
Rentistas 3+ goals
14%
Cerrito 1+ goals
63%
Cerrito 2+ goals
26%
Cerrito 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rentistas (draw refunded)
60%
Cerrito (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rentistas at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.90 · 83 matches

Cerrito away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.44 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rentistas attack 1.14 + Cerrito defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cerrito attack 1.09 + Rentistas defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rentistas scores more
43%
level
28%
Cerrito scores more
29%

Rentistas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rentistas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rentistas vs Cerrito

Cerrito beat Rentistas 1-0 in Segunda División on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Rentistas in Montevideo.