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Rentistas vs Atenas — Segunda División 2025

Rentistas
Rentistas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atenas
Atenas
F. Perez 84'
A. Garcia 8'
9/20/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 21Complejo Rentistas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rentistas34%
×Draw30%
Atenas37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rentistas
1.04
Atenas
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

creates per match

Rentistas
1.07
Atenas
1.31

allows per match

Rentistas
0.89
Atenas
1.00

finishing

Rentistas+0.00on par
Atenas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rentistas ↓

Atenas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rentistas or draw
63%
Rentistas or Atenas
70%
Draw or Atenas
66%

Winning margin

Rentistas wins by 2+
13%
Atenas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rentistas 1+ goals
65%
Rentistas 2+ goals
28%
Rentistas 3+ goals
9%
Atenas 1+ goals
67%
Atenas 2+ goals
30%
Atenas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rentistas (draw refunded)
48%
Atenas (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rentistas at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Atenas away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rentistas attack 1.07 + Atenas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Atenas attack 1.31 + Rentistas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rentistas scores more
34%
level
30%
Atenas scores more
37%

Atenas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Garcia
84'
F. Perez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Rentistas 2–0 Atenas

Rentistas beat Atenas 2-0 in Segunda División on September 20, 2025.

Goals: A. Garcia (8'), F. Perez (84').

The match was played at Complejo Rentistas in Montevideo.