Renova 1–1 Skopje: Result & Stats | First League

Renova

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Skopje

R. Selmani 73'

H. Kirovski 78'

8/8/2021

First League · Round 1Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Renova52%

×Draw26%

Skopje21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RenovaExpected goals in this matchSkopje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.83

Renova

1.48

Skopje

0.83

Renova creates 78% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

1.19

creates per match

0.62

1.04

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Renova

1.19

Skopje

0.62

allows per match

Renova

1.04

Skopje

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renova+0.00on par

Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renova ↓

Skopje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Renova or draw

79%

Renova or Skopje

74%

Draw or Skopje

48%

Winning margin

Renova wins by 2+

27%

Skopje wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Renova 1+ goals

77%

Renova 2+ goals

43%

Renova 3+ goals

19%

Skopje 1+ goals

56%

Skopje 2+ goals

20%

Skopje 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Renova (draw refunded)

71%

Skopje (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renova at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Skopje away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renova attack 1.19 + Skopje defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Skopje attack 0.62 + Renova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Renova scores more

52%

level

26%

Skopje scores more

21%

Renova at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Renova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

I. Ajrullahu← F. Ebibi

51'

67'

69'

69'

73'

77'

F. Stojanovski← F. Janevski

78'

78'

80'

82'

88'

90+3'

Renova

Skopje

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Q. Osmani

46'▲I. Ajrullahu←▼F. Ebibi

69'▲A. Gafuri←▼B. Sadiki

69'▲E. Ramadani←▼J. Mena

88'▲S. Fetai←▼M. Bajrami

Renova substitutes

AjrullahuGafuriRamadaniFetai

Manager: L. Markovski

77'▲F. Stojanovski←▼F. Janevski

90+3'▲A. Noveski←▼B. Demir

Skopje substitutes

StojanovskiNoveski

Renova 1 – 1 Skopje

Renova and Skopje drew 1-1 in First League on August 8, 2021.

Goals: R. Selmani (73'), H. Kirovski (78').

The match was played at Ecolog Arena in Tetovo.

Renova vs Skopje — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Renova 1 – 1 Skopje