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Renova vs Shkupi 1927 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Renova
Renova
FT
1 – 0
Shkupi 1927
Shkupi 1927
7/22/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Renova65%
×Draw19%
Shkupi 192716%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renova
2.20
Shkupi 1927
0.98

Renova creates 124% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Renova
2.83
Shkupi 1927
1.14

allows per match

Renova
0.83
Shkupi 1927
1.57

finishing

Renova+0.00on par
Shkupi 1927+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renova ↓

Shkupi 1927 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Renova or draw
84%
Renova or Shkupi 1927
81%
Draw or Shkupi 1927
35%

Winning margin

Renova wins by 2+
41%
Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Renova 1+ goals
89%
Renova 2+ goals
64%
Renova 3+ goals
37%
Shkupi 1927 1+ goals
62%
Shkupi 1927 2+ goals
26%
Shkupi 1927 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Renova (draw refunded)
80%
Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renova at home — creates 2.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Shkupi 1927 away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renova attack 2.83 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.20

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.14 + Renova defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Renova scores more
65%
level
19%
Shkupi 1927 scores more
16%

Renova at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Renova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Renova 1–0 Shkupi 1927

Renova beat Shkupi 1927 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 22, 2020.