Renova 2–2 Shkupi 1927: Result & Stats

Renova

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Shkupi 1927

N. Mishkovski 75'

F. Zuka 6'

F. Jusufi 90+1'

M. Jurina 41'

10/27/2019

First League · Round 12Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Renova47%

×Draw26%

Shkupi 192726%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RenovaExpected goals in this matchShkupi 1927

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.02

Renova

1.46

Shkupi 1927

1.02

Renova creates 43% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 106 away

1.34

creates per match

1.04

1.00

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Renova

1.34

Shkupi 1927

1.04

allows per match

Renova

1.00

Shkupi 1927

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renova+0.00on par

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renova ↓

Shkupi 1927 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Renova or draw

74%

Renova or Shkupi 1927

74%

Draw or Shkupi 1927

53%

Winning margin

Renova wins by 2+

23%

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Renova 1+ goals

77%

Renova 2+ goals

43%

Renova 3+ goals

18%

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals

64%

Shkupi 1927 2+ goals

27%

Shkupi 1927 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Renova (draw refunded)

64%

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renova at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 53 matches

Shkupi 1927 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renova attack 1.34 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.04 + Renova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Renova scores more

47%

level

26%

Shkupi 1927 scores more

26%

Renova at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Renova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

F. Zuka

28'

L. Diack

40'

B. Sadiki

40'

F. Ismailji← Basil Nchama

41'

44'

46'

66'

70'

D. Darboe← M. Bajrami

75'

N. Mishkovski

77'

F. Jusufi← S. Muharem

86'

A. Veliu← R. Selmani

90+1'

F. Jusufi

Renova

Shkupi

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: B. Islami

46'▲I. Ademi←▼B. Miovski

86'▲A. Veliu←▼R. Selmani

Renova substitutes

AdemiVeliu

Manager: M. Bajrami

40'▲F. Ismailji←▼Basil Nchama

70'▲D. Darboe←▼M. Bajrami

77'▲F. Jusufi←▼S. Muharem

Shkupi 1927 substitutes

IsmailjiDarboeJusufi