Renova 1–1 Akademija Pandev: Result & Stats

Renova

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Akademija Pandev

I. Ademi 74'

S. Pandev 8'

11/9/2019

First League · Round 14Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Renova46%

×Draw27%

Akademija Pandev26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RenovaExpected goals in this matchAkademija Pandev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.97

Renova

1.38

Akademija Pandev

0.97

Renova creates 42% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 110 away

1.34

creates per match

0.95

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Renova

1.34

Akademija Pandev

0.95

allows per match

Renova

1.00

Akademija Pandev

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renova+0.00on par

Akademija Pandev+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renova ↓

Akademija Pandev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Renova or draw

74%

Renova or Akademija Pandev

73%

Draw or Akademija Pandev

54%

Winning margin

Renova wins by 2+

22%

Akademija Pandev wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Renova 1+ goals

75%

Renova 2+ goals

40%

Renova 3+ goals

16%

Akademija Pandev 1+ goals

62%

Akademija Pandev 2+ goals

25%

Akademija Pandev 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Renova (draw refunded)

64%

Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renova at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 53 matches

Akademija Pandev away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renova attack 1.34 + Akademija Pandev defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Akademija Pandev attack 0.95 + Renova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Renova scores more

46%

level

27%

Akademija Pandev scores more

26%

Renova at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Renova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

S. Pandev

53'

M. Krstovski

56'

T. Iliev← D. Milovanovikj

57'

A. Veliu← M. Saliji

64'

I. Ademi← B. Miovski

65'

G. Tanushev← M. Krstovski

73'

N. Sadiki← S. Fetai

74'

I. Ademi

83'

I. Ademi

83'

M. Maslac

84'

S. Kostov

88'

D. Atanasovski← I. Nikolov

90'

K. Stojkoski

Renova

Akademija

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Islami

57'▲A. Veliu←▼M. Saliji

64'▲I. Ademi←▼B. Miovski

73'▲N. Sadiki←▼S. Fetai

Renova substitutes

VeliuAdemiSadiki

Manager: J. Trenchovski

56'▲T. Iliev←▼D. Milovanovikj

65'▲G. Tanushev←▼M. Krstovski

88'▲D. Atanasovski←▼I. Nikolov

Akademija Pandev substitutes

IlievTanushevAtanasovski