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Akademija Pandev vs Renova — First League 2019

Akademija Pandev
Akademija Pandev
CANC
00:00
Renova
Renova
2/26/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Stadion Blagoj Istatov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Akademija Pandev46%
×Draw26%
Renova28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademija Pandev
1.48
Renova
1.10

Akademija Pandev creates 35% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 46 away

creates per match

Akademija Pandev
1.45
Renova
1.15

allows per match

Akademija Pandev
1.06
Renova
1.50

finishing

Akademija Pandev+0.00on par
Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademija Pandev ↓

Renova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Akademija Pandev or draw
72%
Akademija Pandev or Renova
74%
Draw or Renova
54%

Winning margin

Akademija Pandev wins by 2+
23%
Renova wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Akademija Pandev 1+ goals
77%
Akademija Pandev 2+ goals
43%
Akademija Pandev 3+ goals
19%
Renova 1+ goals
67%
Renova 2+ goals
30%
Renova 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)
62%
Renova (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademija Pandev at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Renova away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademija Pandev attack 1.45 + Renova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Renova attack 1.15 + Akademija Pandev defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Akademija Pandev scores more
46%
level
26%
Renova scores more
28%

Akademija Pandev at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Akademija Pandev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Akademija Pandev host Renova

February 26, 2023: Akademija Pandev take on Renova in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Akademija Pandev host Renova at Stadion Blagoj Istatov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.