Renofa Yamaguchi 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki

Renofa Yamaguchi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

V-varen Nagasaki

6/3/2023

J2 League · Round 19Ishin Me-Life Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Renofa Yamaguchi33%

×Draw26%

V-varen Nagasaki41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Renofa YamaguchiExpected goals in this matchV-varen Nagasaki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.42

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.25

V-varen Nagasaki

1.42

V-varen Nagasaki creates 14% more chances

Season form · 167 home / 143 away

1.26

creates per match

1.48

1.36

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.26

V-varen Nagasaki

1.48

allows per match

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.36

V-varen Nagasaki

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renofa Yamaguchi ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Renofa Yamaguchi or draw

59%

Renofa Yamaguchi or V-varen Nagasaki

74%

Draw or V-varen Nagasaki

67%

Winning margin

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+

14%

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals

71%

Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals

36%

Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals

13%

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

76%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

41%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)

45%

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renofa Yamaguchi at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 167 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 1.26 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.48 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more

33%

level

26%

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

41%

V-varen Nagasaki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff