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Renofa Yamaguchi vs Grulla Morioka — J2 League 2018

Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Grulla Morioka
Grulla Morioka
10/2/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 39Saving Athletics Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Renofa Yamaguchi49%
×Draw25%
Grulla Morioka26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.63
Grulla Morioka
1.13

Renofa Yamaguchi creates 44% more chances

Season form · 167 home / 21 away

creates per match

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.26
Grulla Morioka
0.90

allows per match

Renofa Yamaguchi
1.36
Grulla Morioka
2.00

finishing

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par
Grulla Morioka+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renofa Yamaguchi ↓

Grulla Morioka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Renofa Yamaguchi or draw
74%
Renofa Yamaguchi or Grulla Morioka
75%
Draw or Grulla Morioka
51%

Winning margin

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
26%
Grulla Morioka wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
80%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
48%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
22%
Grulla Morioka 1+ goals
68%
Grulla Morioka 2+ goals
31%
Grulla Morioka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
65%
Grulla Morioka (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renofa Yamaguchi at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 167 matches

Grulla Morioka away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 1.26 + Grulla Morioka defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Grulla Morioka attack 0.90 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
49%
level
25%
Grulla Morioka scores more
26%

Renofa Yamaguchi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Renofa Yamaguchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Renofa Yamaguchi 2–2 Grulla Morioka

Renofa Yamaguchi and Grulla Morioka drew 2-2 in J2 League on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Saving Athletics Stadium in Shimonoseki.