Renofa Yamaguchi 1–1 Blaublitz Akita

Renofa Yamaguchi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blaublitz Akita

K. Yoshioka 82'

M. Yoshioka 5'

6/28/2025

J2 League · Round 21Ishin Me-Life Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Renofa Yamaguchi45%

×Draw25%

Blaublitz Akita30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Renofa YamaguchiExpected goals in this matchBlaublitz Akita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.21

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.56

Blaublitz Akita

1.21

Renofa Yamaguchi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 22 away

1.22

creates per match

1.23

1.19

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.22

Blaublitz Akita

1.23

allows per match

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.19

Blaublitz Akita

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renofa Yamaguchi ↓

Blaublitz Akita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Renofa Yamaguchi or draw

70%

Renofa Yamaguchi or Blaublitz Akita

75%

Draw or Blaublitz Akita

55%

Winning margin

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+

23%

Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals

79%

Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals

46%

Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals

21%

Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals

70%

Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals

34%

Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)

61%

Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renofa Yamaguchi at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

Blaublitz Akita away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 1.22 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.56

Blaublitz Akita attack 1.23 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more

45%

level

25%

Blaublitz Akita scores more

30%

Renofa Yamaguchi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Renofa Yamaguchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

32'

59'

60'

66'

S. Yamamoto← H. Naruoka

70'

R. Ishida← M. Yoshioka

70'

Y. Kajiya← R. Komatsu

75'

S. Isotani← K. Matsuda

75'

S. Kobayashi← K. Tanabe

82'

K. Yoshioka↳ S. Kobayashi

83'

K. Noyori← O. Yamamoto

83'

T. Suenaga← D. Furukawa

86'

R. Saito← T. Hasegawa

86'

J. Hata← T. Fujiyama

Renofa

Blaublitz

1

Yamada

32

▼

71

4

16

20

⚽

▼

Yoshioka

25

▼

Fujiyama

5

Nagai

29

Sato

34

▼

Suzuki

10

▼

Komatsu

26

Taguchi

5

⚽

Yoshioka

4

▼

Matsuda

14

Shimodo

40

▼

Naruoka

55

Okaniwa

17

▼

Tanabe

29

Wakasa

18

Kamekawa

34

▼

Furukawa

45

▼

Yamamoto

Manager: Genki Nakayama

66'▲S. Yamamoto←▼H. Naruoka

75'▲S. Isotani←▼K. Matsuda

75'▲S. Kobayashi←▼K. Tanabe

83'▲K. Noyori←▼O. Yamamoto

83'▲T. Suenaga←▼D. Furukawa

Renofa Yamaguchi substitutes

21Hyung-Chan15Itakura76Isotani27Ozawa6Byeom-Yong8Noyori28Kobayashi38Suenaga19Yamamoto

Manager: Ken Yoshida

60'▲K. Sagawa←▼S. Suzuki

70'▲R. Ishida←▼M. Yoshioka

70'▲Y. Kajiya←▼R. Komatsu

86'▲R. Saito←▼T. Hasegawa

86'▲J. Hata←▼T. Fujiyama

Blaublitz Akita substitutes

17Radotic13Saito9Nakamura31Ishida8Hata11Kajiya40Sagawa