Reno 1868 5–0 Tacoma Defiance: Result & Stats

Reno 1868

FT

5 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Tacoma Defiance

9/11/2019

USL Championship · Round 49Aces Ballpark (Reno, Nevada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Reno 186861%

×Draw20%

Tacoma Defiance19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reno 1868Expected goals in this matchTacoma Defiance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.17

Reno 1868

2.23

Tacoma Defiance

1.17

Reno 1868 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 43 away

2.13

creates per match

0.95

1.40

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Reno 1868

2.13

Tacoma Defiance

0.95

allows per match

Reno 1868

1.40

Tacoma Defiance

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reno 1868+0.00on par

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reno 1868 ↓

Tacoma Defiance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Reno 1868 or draw

81%

Reno 1868 or Tacoma Defiance

80%

Draw or Tacoma Defiance

39%

Winning margin

Reno 1868 wins by 2+

38%

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Reno 1868 1+ goals

89%

Reno 1868 2+ goals

65%

Reno 1868 3+ goals

38%

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals

69%

Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals

33%

Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Reno 1868 (draw refunded)

76%

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reno 1868 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

Tacoma Defiance away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reno 1868 attack 2.13 + Tacoma Defiance defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.23

Tacoma Defiance attack 0.95 + Reno 1868 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Reno 1868 scores more

61%

level

20%

Tacoma Defiance scores more

19%

Reno 1868 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff