Reno 1868 1–3 Portland Timbers II: Result & Stats

Reno 1868

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Portland Timbers II

9/1/2019

USL Championship · Round 47Aces Ballpark (Reno, Nevada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Reno 186852%

×Draw21%

Portland Timbers II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reno 1868Expected goals in this matchPortland Timbers II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.42

Reno 1868

2.06

Portland Timbers II

1.42

Reno 1868 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 43 away

2.13

creates per match

1.44

1.40

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Reno 1868

2.13

Portland Timbers II

1.44

allows per match

Reno 1868

1.40

Portland Timbers II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reno 1868+0.00on par

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reno 1868 ↓

Portland Timbers II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Reno 1868 or draw

74%

Reno 1868 or Portland Timbers II

79%

Draw or Portland Timbers II

48%

Winning margin

Reno 1868 wins by 2+

31%

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Reno 1868 1+ goals

87%

Reno 1868 2+ goals

61%

Reno 1868 3+ goals

34%

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals

76%

Portland Timbers II 2+ goals

41%

Portland Timbers II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Reno 1868 (draw refunded)

66%

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reno 1868 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

Portland Timbers II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reno 1868 attack 2.13 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Portland Timbers II attack 1.44 + Reno 1868 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Reno 1868 scores more

52%

level

21%

Portland Timbers II scores more

26%

Reno 1868 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff