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Reno 1868 vs Fresno FC — USL Championship 2018

Reno 1868
Reno 1868
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Fresno FC
Fresno FC
9/8/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 49Aces Ballpark (Reno, Nevada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reno 186848%
×Draw24%
Fresno FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reno 1868
1.74
Fresno FC
1.27

Reno 1868 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 34 away

creates per match

Reno 1868
2.13
Fresno FC
1.15

allows per match

Reno 1868
1.40
Fresno FC
1.35

finishing

Reno 1868+0.00on par
Fresno FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reno 1868 ↓

Fresno FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Reno 1868 or draw
72%
Reno 1868 or Fresno FC
76%
Draw or Fresno FC
52%

Winning margin

Reno 1868 wins by 2+
26%
Fresno FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Reno 1868 1+ goals
82%
Reno 1868 2+ goals
52%
Reno 1868 3+ goals
25%
Fresno FC 1+ goals
72%
Fresno FC 2+ goals
36%
Fresno FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Reno 1868 (draw refunded)
63%
Fresno FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reno 1868 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

Fresno FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reno 1868 attack 2.13 + Fresno FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.74

Fresno FC attack 1.15 + Reno 1868 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Reno 1868 scores more
48%
level
24%
Fresno FC scores more
28%

Reno 1868 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Reno 1868 2–3 Fresno FC

Fresno FC beat Reno 1868 3-2 in USL Championship on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Aces Ballpark (Reno, Nevada).